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The impact of the highly improbable

Topic: Black swans
by Kevin, 2019 Cohort

When 9/11 happened, was it unexpected? Did it shock almost everyone to the bone? Were the aftermath effects mostly fearful and precautionary? A ‘yes’ as an answer to all three questions defines a black swan event.

The black swan theory refers to an event which was considered an unknown or highly improbable and once it occurs it is rationalised by hindsight and the necessary risk mitigation processes are known but are not implemented beforehand due to the unlikelihood of the event. The events are usually high impact macroscopic events which have a major effect on the timeline and on the environment. The theory arises from the discovery of the black swan in the 18th century before which the idea was obsolete about ever finding a black swan since the basic notion was that all swans are supposed to be white.

The Black Swan theory is usually a counter to the idea of Platonicity (after the philosopher Plato) which suggest that our minds tend to frame around well-defined shapes, thoughts and boundaries, often avoiding the unknown. Basically, Platonicity defines and addresses the probable and the scenarios which can be proven to exist, like the presence of terrorists in certain parts of the world and the threat they possess. Something like 9/11 wouldn’t be predicted by a Platonist. These thoughts usually inhibit our mind to think about undefined and less probable scenarios and this leads to a formation of a huge gap between what you know and the unknown. (mention information bias)

Relating the black swan theory to complexity, humans tend to use a safer, more conventional alternative in their work and decisions. Even though the human mind is 50% inclined towards the unconventional, the safer option is chosen since it’s easier to justify. Doctors in this case, tend to stick to the familiar tried and tested methods in treatment, even though some scenarios might require lateral thinking and some prudent risk-taking actions.

From the basic study of the Black Swan theory, we can come up with the following conclusions (these conclusions might just change in the future as well):

  • A statement or a fact which is deemed right today might not necessarily stay so in the future and vice versa.
  • A statement or a fact which has been proven wrong can be proved to be right in the future again and vice versa. This tends to be an endless cycle of juggling between what is right and wrong.
  • We can conclude that scenarios in life are neither black nor white, but just different shades of grey, and that’s how knowledge works as well. The chances of avoiding a black swan event and bleak but the intensity of the impact it has on the surroundings can be controlled by detailed study and subsequent preventive measures.

Attention: This is just a read. Do not use these words to frame your mind and thoughts. The possibilities of events occurring are endless and cannot be contained.

Disclaimer#

This content has been contributed by a student as part of a learning activity.
If there are inaccuracies, or opportunities for significant improvement on this topic, feedback is welcome on how to improve the resource.
You can improve articles on this topic as a student in "Unravelling Complexity", or by including the amendments in an email to: Chris.Browne@anu.edu.au

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