Future Thinking and Systems Thinking
Topic: Systems thinking
by Teng-Yi, 2020 Cohort
A system can be defined as the combination of elements, interconnections and purpose. We are part of a system; on a very broad scale we are part of the milky way and on a smaller scale, the human body itself is a system.
Curiosity has always been a part of us; we like to know whether it is going to rain tomorrow or when sales are going to occur in the future. Knowing what is going to happen in the future seems to give us a sense of security that comes with the ability to make advantageous decisions. But can we really know what is going to happen in the future? All we can really do is to choose the most likely scenario out of all the possibilities that might happen in the future, and this known as future thinking.
The weather is currently predicted through computer models that takes into consideration of all the elements that is influential to the calculation. The most probable scenario is then chosen and delivered through mass media such as daily news and weather reporting companies to the public. This is what we receive as the public when we hear about news forecast for upcoming week when watching the news on television.
The weather prediction process begins by looking at the purpose of each elements within the weather system and how these elements interact in order to best understand the behavior of the system. Some of the elements within the weather system includes air pressure, abundance of water and solar radiation. These elements interact with each other and by applying systems thinking, all elements and interactions are analyzed and taken into consideration to calculate the most likely outcome of the system, which is the weather for tomorrow.
In order to electronically simulate systems as close to reality as possible, all factors that influence the system need be inputted into the simulation. This relies on objectivity, while objectivity relies on understanding how our mental models affects our analysis of the system.
The iceberg model suggests what we see is just a small part of the whole and that mental models are the fundamental factor that influences systems. These mental models are like an invisible lens over our eyes influencing the way we perceive the event and how we think about the event. By understanding the mental models, we are able more objectively analyze systems.
Complex systems often involve different purposes, different incentives, different values and different mental models. For inanimate systems like predicting the weather, objectivity seems to be more achievable compared to predicting cultural evolutions.
Systems thinking is a really helpful tool to help give perspective to complex systems through identification of elements, interactions and purpose of the system. By understanding the behavior of the systems and how the elements interact with each other objectively, how the system might behave can be predicted through future thinking by taking into consideration of all the possibilities and calculating to most probable outcome.
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