How societies and democracies die
Topic: Collapse
by James, 2020 Cohort
With the benefit of hindsight, it can be easy for us to say “people should have known that Mt Vesuvius would erupt again”- after all, there had been an eruption only 16 years before the cataclysmic eruption which buried the people and city of Pompeii. It can be easy to say, “that society should have stopped deforestation on their island before they destroyed the ecosystem which supported their society” (eg Easter Island) or “our democracy has worked for many years! That bad thing could never happen here” (eg the rise of Nazi Germany). But we should not be so
In Collapse, author Jared Diamond points out that military defeat marks the collapse of various historical societies, however, the root cause of their military defeat lies in earlier failures to look after their environment. Diamond says that environmental damage, climate change, presence of hostile neighbours and lack of friendly trading partners are all factors that mediate a society’s proximity to collapse. That said, it is the society’s response to their problems which is the greatest decider of the outcome- whether the civilisation and its citizens decide to take responsibility and act before it is too late. To complicate things further, in our increasingly globalised world, nations must work with other nations in order to avoid a collapse of humanity on a global
In his follow-up book, Upheaval, Diamond adapts a twelve-step process from psychology and uses it to show how societies and citizens can face crises and apply what he calls “Selective Change” in order to avoid collapse. The process includes steps such as: acknowledging the crisis, accepting responsibility to respond to the crisis and showing flexibility.
On a political level, How Democracies Die, looks at case studies of nations where democracies have collapsed and been replaced by autocracies. The authors highlight four warning signs to help identify when a leader is likely to become dangerous to the democracy of their nation: rejecting the rules of democracy, making unsubstantiated claims to discredit their opponent, tolerating or encouraging the use of violence and/or expressing a desire to reduce the civil rights of a person or institution.
Political parties have a responsibility to protect democracy by vetting the candidates and keeping dangerous candidates out of the running. If an Autocrat in hiding manages to make it through the gate, the collapse of the society’s democracy usually takes effect in three stages:
“Capture the referees”- taking control of the justice
“Sideline the opposition”- blackmail, exile or silence
“Change the rules”- so that the system works in favour of the
Before you dismiss the possibility of the collapse of your society in your lifetime, remember the key message of The Black Swan: we are not as good at predicting the future as we think that we are. If citizens don’t stay vigilant and take early action to respond to crises with adaptation (eg climate change) or resistance (eg dangerous leaders) we risk becoming the next example of a societal collapse.
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