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Trembling or Embracing Hands: Overcoming Uncertainty in the Face of Ignorance

Topic: Ignorance
by Andrea and Tyea, 2021 Cohort

The First Step: What are the two ‘Trembling Hands’? Uncertainty & Ignorance#

“One of the most important problems of our world is the trembling hand” - Martin Shubik

This quote will help us understand the starting point of our primer concept: how to unravel uncertainty in the face of ignorance. We hope to guide you through how by applying a mindset that focuses on ‘embracing’ rather than fearing, we can shift ‘trembling’ attitudes about the unknown and uncertain. Martin Shubik tells us that we face this problem every day. When faced with incomplete knowledge or certainty, we experience ‘The Trembling Hands’. ‘The Trembling Hands’ can best be understood as the ‘trembling’ fears that individuals face as ignorance controls the ‘hand’ of one’s cognition and behaviour. As Shubik explains, this control results in a self-fulfilling prophecy of experiencing uncertainty due to ignorance. Because of this, ‘the trembling hands,’ more specifically, ignorance and uncertainty have widely held negative connotations.

Before ascertaining these ‘trembling’ fears, we must first understand what ignorance and uncertainty are. They are intrinsically connected and are centred based on a lack of “true” knowledge. Together they are seen as erroneous and distorted from fact and are thus “undesirable”. In psychology, our interests are vested in performative models of human intelligence, with both ignorance and uncertainty treated as destructive to these models, impeding our cognitive functioning.

The Second Step: How Connected are Uncertainty and Ignorance?#

We intend to delve deeper into how cognitive processes underlie why we fear the unknown, as well as how uncertainty and ignorance play their role in this. Fear of uncertainty/the unknown is seen as the result of a lack of confidence. As complex social behaviour is often triggered non-consciously and is a schematic response to what we have previously been exposed to, feelings of uncertainty and ignorance present an unfavourable ‘curveball’. This ignorance is the overwhelming strength of personal beliefs that depart from the objective factual to become cognitive bias’ and human errors. However, there is a difference between ‘ignorance’ and ‘being ignorant’. Ignorance is the active voice in which we choose what to ignore. Ignorance is a blanket that blindly leads the “confident” into a sea of biased certainty. ‘Being ignorant’ allows for choice in when to be ignorant and when to be aware. There is no choice for true ignorance as these ‘trembling hands’ ‘curveball’ our cognition. By ‘being ignorant’ at times and aware at others, we can begin to embrace ignorance in the face of uncertainty. By checking and balancing our own ignorance’s, we can use this to positively understand wider issues. By employing this problem-solving mindset through actively discerning when to ‘be ignorant’, we avoid Shubik’s self-fulfilling prophecy that ignorance has flourished under.

#### The Third Step: Understanding Why We Fear ‘The Trembling Hands’

Intrinsically, we are obsessed with the pursuit of knowledge and anything that may get in the way will affect us psychologically. Michael Smithson’s work “Psychology’s ambivalent view on uncertainty” helps us understand these cognitive processes and what they can lead to. One of these mechanisms is termed the “certainty maximiser”. Those who fall into this category often experience the most ‘trembling’ debilitating feelings and consequences of uncertainty and ignorance. They fall victim to how this lack of control and adaptability can directly and negatively ‘curveball’ their cognitive and physiological capacities. So now that we are hopefully more aware of how we are psychologically affected by ignorance and uncertainty can we learn to embrace the unknown, the untruthful and unknowledgeable?

Facing ignorance in the face of uncertainty requires a positive, embracing hands-on approach. A continuation of Michael Smithson’s work, the ‘knowledge seeker’ is a cognitive mechanism imperative to understanding one way we deal with uncertainty and ignorance. They are well-adjusted and non-defensive. They seek information, experience and are open to full and honest communication. Whilst this ‘knowledge seeker’ is a step in the right direction, we believe the ‘knowledge seeker’ has succumbed to the pursuit of knowledge. Being obsessed with the “right” knowledge is problematic, as they neglect other pieces of information that to them are not as relevant. A defence mechanism that is not conducive to cognitive growth and protects their knowledge ego. Hence perpetuating the destructive and ‘trembling’ cycle of ignorance and uncertainty. Not all information is correct nor relevant but being aware of all information and our own levels of ignorance towards them, will always provide a more holistic understanding.

Final Step: Truly Countering & Embracing ‘Uncertainty in the Face of Ignorance’#

This primer was not merely a comment on the problems of ‘the trembling hands’ that plague uncertainty and lead to ignorance. We came to posit a new piece of insightful work that builds on these foundations. A work that further unravels these concepts with the hopes of being added on in the future. That rather the focus should be on “the two embracing hands: overcoming uncertainty in the face of ignorance”.

We posit that we need to move away from the absolute pursuit of knowledge seen in the ‘knowledge seeker’, but instead bask in the unknown. It is important for us to understand that whilst uncertain situations are an unpleasant part of life, they are inevitable, and we will continually be at war with the negative aspects of our cognition. There is a lot we can learn through embracing them positively. Our misleading intuition is not set in stone indefinitely. Nothing is unthinkable. Nothing is unknowable. Instead of allowing ourselves to be swept out to sea by our uncertainty and ignorance, we should attempt to unlearn why we were first placed in this position. Asking the right questions, like why we in the dark about this topic are, and how can we reframe our intrinsic assumptions and biases is imperative to implementing this cognitive shift.

Additional Resources#

Michael Smithson (1989) Ignorance and Uncertainty
Michael Smithson (2012) Psychology’s Ambivalent View on Psychology

Explore this topic further#

Mike Smithson, Ignorance Studies PDF{.link-ext target=”_blank”}
Wikipedia page{.link-ext target=”_blank”}

Return to Ignorance in the Primer

Disclaimer#

This content has been contributed by a student as part of a learning activity.
If there are inaccuracies, or opportunities for significant improvement on this topic, feedback is welcome on how to improve the resource.
You can improve articles on this topic as a student in "Unravelling Complexity", or by including the amendments in an email to: Chris.Browne@anu.edu.au