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Tipping Points: destruction or opportunities for reconstruction
Topic: Tipping points
by Ella, 2020 Cohort
A tipping point is the accrual of a small amount of change, causing the balance of a system to tip and the transition to a new state. As the system reaches carrying capacity or the sustainable level, it passes a point of no return and creates a new state which is markedly different from the original. This can be caused by a reinforcing (positive) feedback loop, where one aspect enhances or amplifies the other. It can also be caused by a catalyst which changes the state of the system as a whole, or the object or focus. A simple example of a tipping point can be demonstrated with a flooding river. A large amount of rain flows into the river, then once the river reaches a crucial point, it floods the nearby town. This represents a change in the system (the amount of water).
The resilience of a system determines how well it can resist change. The closer to a tipping point, the more likely the system will fluctuate and slowly recover from increased pressure. Continuing the flooding example, if the river had been sandbagged or sustainable drainage was used in the nearby town, the amount of time taken for the river to reach the tipping point would increase. Hence the flood may not occur, avoiding the tipping point. When examining the role of resilience, it is essential to consider if resilience merely creates a capacity to persist or adapt in the system or if it will transform it. While sandbagging, a strategy to persist, is less effective than sustainable drainage, an adaptive reaction, neither provide a transformative approach. Transforming the system into a substantially different one before a tipping point, can provide a better long-term solution to an issue. It does however, present larger difficulties during implementation such as time, energy, expertise, cost and the need for deeper societal change. A transformative response to the flood could include moving the town onto higher ground, so it is not affected when the river floods.
Identifying and understanding tipping points is important because they alert decision-makers to variables and risks that can be used to create and reformulate policies in light of complexities. Tipping points are most frequently viewed as a negative event. A common example of this is seen in ecology, where the term is used to describe the breach of planetary boundaries, which has widespread disastrous consequences. Destruction as a result of a tipping point does not always occur. A society or system’s reaction to change varies significantly based on the use of mental models and bias. It is widely agreed that reaching a state of homeostasis and calming enduring chaos is an important goal immediately following a tipping point. Reframing this chaos as a positive opportunity for change can provide an opportunity to examine if the current system is ideal. It also invites consideration of what an ideal system looks like. New systems and norms that better cater the needs of the system and individuals can be included in the rebuilding process.
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A tipping point is the accrual of a small amount of change, causing the balance of a system to tip and the transition to a new state. As the system reaches carrying capacity or the sustainable level, it passes a point of no return and creates a new state which is markedly different from the original. This can be caused by a reinforcing (positive) feedback loop, where one aspect enhances or amplifies the other. It can also be caused by a catalyst which changes the state of the system as a whole, or the object or focus. A simple example of a tipping point can be demonstrated with a flooding river. A large amount of rain flows into the river, then once the river reaches a crucial point, it floods the nearby town. This represents a change in the system (the amount of water).
The resilience of a system determines how well it can resist change. The closer to a tipping point, the more likely the system will fluctuate and slowly recover from increased pressure. Continuing the flooding example, if the river had been sandbagged or sustainable drainage was used in the nearby town, the amount of time taken for the river to reach the tipping point would increase. Hence the flood may not occur, avoiding the tipping point. When examining the role of resilience, it is essential to consider if resilience merely creates a capacity to persist or adapt in the system or if it will transform it. While sandbagging, a strategy to persist, is less effective than sustainable drainage, an adaptive reaction, neither provide a transformative approach. Transforming the system into a substantially different one before a tipping point, can provide a better long-term solution to an issue. It does however, present larger difficulties during implementation such as time, energy, expertise, cost and the need for deeper societal change. A transformative response to the flood could include moving the town onto higher ground, so it is not affected when the river floods.
Identifying and understanding tipping points is important because they alert decision-makers to variables and risks that can be used to create and reformulate policies in light of complexities. Tipping points are most frequently viewed as a negative event. A common example of this is seen in ecology, where the term is used to describe the breach of planetary boundaries, which has widespread disastrous consequences. Destruction as a result of a tipping point does not always occur. A society or system’s reaction to change varies significantly based on the use of mental models and bias. It is widely agreed that reaching a state of homeostasis and calming enduring chaos is an important goal immediately following a tipping point. Reframing this chaos as a positive opportunity for change can provide an opportunity to examine if the current system is ideal. It also invites consideration of what an ideal system looks like. New systems and norms that better cater the needs of the system and individuals can be included in the rebuilding process.