'The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing'- Socrates
Topic: Unknowns
by Katie, 2020 Cohort
Understanding Unknowns#
Unknowns may be described as absent, incomplete, untested or unfamiliar knowledge. They are subjective, existing in relation to a knowledge holder or group of knowledge holders. Unknowns can be an important generative resource; for example, in literature and art they are used to construct meaning. Unknowns also incentivise human activities, such as game play and research. While in these contexts a knowledge vacuum is beneficial, it is detrimental in others. Unknowns are particularly challenging in the context of resolving complex problems where their ineffable and unpredictable nature can generate uncertainty, risk and unintended consequences. Consequently, it is important to understand and approach Unknowns strategically. When resolving complex problems, the best strategic response to an unknown is determined by its type so it is beneficial to categorise Unknowns.
Categorisation of Unknowns#
Known Unknowns#
‘All we know is still infinitely less than all that remains unknown’- William Harvey
Known Unknowns may be characterised as a lack of knowledge that we are aware of. Awareness of a given unknown makes it possible to remedy absent knowledge. This occurs in mathematics for example where unknown variables and factors, often represented by letters such as x, are posited and solved for. Known Unknowns may be addressed by extending existing knowledge; positing hypothesis and gathering measurement and other data.
Unknown Knowns#
‘Most things are never meant’- Phillip Larkin
Unknown Knowns may be characterised as existing knowledge we are not aware of. The epistemic principle that knowledge and belief are contingently, rather than necessarily connected demonstrates we may possess knowledge that is unfamiliar. Unknown Knowns include intuitions, unconscious assumptions, prejudices and unconscious bias. The justification of colonialism based on civilising foreign populations may be understood as an example of widespread unconscious assumptions. Unknown Knowns increase unintentional risk for problem solvers and miscommunication and inefficacy within groups. Unknown Knowns may be addressed by increasing awareness through self-analysis, comparison against external data, collaboration, brainstorming and feedback.
Unknown Unknowns#
‘There is always the risk that there are unknown unknowns’ -Nate Silver
Unknown Unknowns may be characterised as a lack of knowledge we are not aware of. They pose a particularly high risk to the resolution of complex problems because they are unidentified, often emerge in the future and are highly unpredictable. Unknown Unknowns increase the risk of detrimental unintended consequences and black swan events. The over-valuation of council taxi licences prior to the emergence of uber illustrates the risk of Unknown Unknowns. Unknown Unknowns are best addressed by identifying potential gaps in knowledge, for example through interdisciplinary collaboration, modelling and future scenario development. The negative impacts of Unknown Unknowns may be mitigated by building flexibility and resilience into systems and solutions.
Working with Unknowns#
When resolving complex problems Unknowns should be identified, categorised and addressed. The greatest threat from Unknowns occurs when they lie buried while we proceed, unwitting. This reinforces the acuity of Socrates’ claim above; when it comes to working with Unknowns in complex problems, awareness of what we do not know is, without a doubt, the truest wisdom.
Disclaimer#
This content has been contributed by a student as part of a learning activity.
If there are inaccuracies, or opportunities for significant improvement on this topic, feedback is welcome on how to improve the resource.
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