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The overlooked sources of prediction that can aid in unravelling complexity
Topic: Prediction
by Kiran, 2019 Cohort
Predictions are statements or postulations about what an individual or a group of individuals hypothesise will happen in the future. In the context of complexity, the Cynefin framework describes the difference between complicated and complex problems. We can apply this to the study of prediction in that different contexts of prediction warrant different methods of enquiry. Predictions regarding meteorology, climate change, ecological disasters, politics, economic markets etcetera are all complicated. They all warrant the advice of experts to analyse key factors which can be devised through assessing past trends and patterns, utilising data and statistics as well as comparing similar situations to pre-test the effectiveness of solutions. How do individuals or groups predict things in the future when there are no frameworks, databases or systems to be used as a point of reference?
It’s important to consider that there are some types of prediction that can be of great use to humankind however, as modern technology has developed and permeated almost every facet of our everyday lives, we have a tendency, as a human race, to not reflect on the survival of our race before the existence of modern technology. Ancient cultures and civilisations have had their own way of surviving through time as well as preserving the environment around them. However, due to the nature of their practices being considered antiquated or outlandish we often overlook their wisdom because we can’t explain the accuracy of their predictions. I think it would be a disservice to humankind, and particularly these enduring civilisations, if we practiced reductionism when assessing the practices of these ancient cultures. Instead, we should aim to understand and unravel the complexities of their ways so in turn, we can utilise their abilities of predicting events to unravel complexities in the macro-world.
To illustrate this notion, I’ll raise the example of an ancient Kogi tribe civilisation of Colombia, who came forth to warn modern civilisations about the ecological peril that industrialisation will continue to cause. They, as a people, believe that the shoreline of Colombia is linked at sacred sites which have been destroyed.
Similarly, they believe these sacred points are linked to corresponding sacred points in the mountains. They went into the main city (Bogota) on the 21st of September 2006 to warn ‘Younger Brother’ (modern civilisation) that if they build a port (for the purpose of mining) at a sacred site called ‘Hukulwa’ (Puerto Brisa) that there would be violent storms and landslides in the corresponding mountainous area. The construction commenced in July 2010 and later that year from September to December there were devastating floods and landslides in Bogota and surrounding areas. Since the completion of Puerta Brisa in 2014, floods and landslides have continued to occur in the surrounding area on a much more catastrophic scale that before the port’s existence. The ‘Mamas’ (elders) of this ancient tribe derive their predictions from ‘consultations’ with the water at sacred points on the shoreline and ascertain messages in the bubbles that the water generates.
Some academics may call this geomancy however, their knowledge extends beyond this to “seriously discussing dark energy with a leading astronomer and correctly identifying objects seen by the Hubble telescope.” Astronomer & Professor Richard Ellis, who observes the distant Universe using large ground- based telescopes and the Hubble Space Telescope, in consultation with senior members of the Kogi tribe has attested to the knowledge we can gain from this enduring tribe who can articulate space objects that individuals of modern society can’t see with the naked eye. Another expert featured in the documentary, Dr. Jules Camillo MD, attests to the tribe’s specialised restoration and preservation abilities when land, such as the basin of the Guachaca river, is returned to
There is a lot to learn from these ancient civilisations as they possess knowledge that can help us predict ecological disasters and perhaps dissuade us against making poor infrastructure decisions that may lead to ecological disasters. Although it may be easy to overlook this reclusive tribe as outlandish and reduce their knowledge to antiquated practices, this would be a disservice to their effort to warn us of what is to come if we continue to put the economy over the environment.
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This content has been contributed by a student as part of a learning activity.
If there are inaccuracies, or opportunities for significant improvement on this topic, feedback is welcome on how to improve the resource.
You can improve articles on this topic as a student in "Unravelling Complexity", or by including the amendments in an email to: Chris.Browne@anu.edu.au
Predictions are statements or postulations about what an individual or a group of individuals hypothesise will happen in the future. In the context of complexity, the Cynefin framework describes the difference between complicated and complex problems. We can apply this to the study of prediction in that different contexts of prediction warrant different methods of enquiry. Predictions regarding meteorology, climate change, ecological disasters, politics, economic markets etcetera are all complicated. They all warrant the advice of experts to analyse key factors which can be devised through assessing past trends and patterns, utilising data and statistics as well as comparing similar situations to pre-test the effectiveness of solutions. How do individuals or groups predict things in the future when there are no frameworks, databases or systems to be used as a point of reference?
It’s important to consider that there are some types of prediction that can be of great use to humankind however, as modern technology has developed and permeated almost every facet of our everyday lives, we have a tendency, as a human race, to not reflect on the survival of our race before the existence of modern technology. Ancient cultures and civilisations have had their own way of surviving through time as well as preserving the environment around them. However, due to the nature of their practices being considered antiquated or outlandish we often overlook their wisdom because we can’t explain the accuracy of their predictions. I think it would be a disservice to humankind, and particularly these enduring civilisations, if we practiced reductionism when assessing the practices of these ancient cultures. Instead, we should aim to understand and unravel the complexities of their ways so in turn, we can utilise their abilities of predicting events to unravel complexities in the macro-world.
To illustrate this notion, I’ll raise the example of an ancient Kogi tribe civilisation of Colombia, who came forth to warn modern civilisations about the ecological peril that industrialisation will continue to cause. They, as a people, believe that the shoreline of Colombia is linked at sacred sites which have been destroyed.
Similarly, they believe these sacred points are linked to corresponding sacred points in the mountains. They went into the main city (Bogota) on the 21st of September 2006 to warn ‘Younger Brother’ (modern civilisation) that if they build a port (for the purpose of mining) at a sacred site called ‘Hukulwa’ (Puerto Brisa) that there would be violent storms and landslides in the corresponding mountainous area. The construction commenced in July 2010 and later that year from September to December there were devastating floods and landslides in Bogota and surrounding areas. Since the completion of Puerta Brisa in 2014, floods and landslides have continued to occur in the surrounding area on a much more catastrophic scale that before the port’s existence. The ‘Mamas’ (elders) of this ancient tribe derive their predictions from ‘consultations’ with the water at sacred points on the shoreline and ascertain messages in the bubbles that the water generates.
Some academics may call this geomancy however, their knowledge extends beyond this to “seriously discussing dark energy with a leading astronomer and correctly identifying objects seen by the Hubble telescope.” Astronomer & Professor Richard Ellis, who observes the distant Universe using large ground- based telescopes and the Hubble Space Telescope, in consultation with senior members of the Kogi tribe has attested to the knowledge we can gain from this enduring tribe who can articulate space objects that individuals of modern society can’t see with the naked eye. Another expert featured in the documentary, Dr. Jules Camillo MD, attests to the tribe’s specialised restoration and preservation abilities when land, such as the basin of the Guachaca river, is returned to
There is a lot to learn from these ancient civilisations as they possess knowledge that can help us predict ecological disasters and perhaps dissuade us against making poor infrastructure decisions that may lead to ecological disasters. Although it may be easy to overlook this reclusive tribe as outlandish and reduce their knowledge to antiquated practices, this would be a disservice to their effort to warn us of what is to come if we continue to put the economy over the environment.