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Occam's razor / The impact of the highly improbable
The impact of the highly improbable
Topic: Occam's razor
by YC, 2019 Cohort
“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.”
Occam’s Razor is a philosophical principle which states that all else being equal, an explanation for a situation or phenomenon that relies on fewer assumptions is better. It is a mental model used in problem solving which argues we should not to seek out excessively complex solutions to a problem if a simple one exists. It can be applied in a wide range of situations as a mental model for making initial conclusions before sufficient information can be obtained, which can be critical to solving complex problems.
A famous application of Occam’s Razor is the explanation of planetary motion in our solar system. To explain the retrograde motion of the planets, Ptolemy proposed a complicated geocentric model where each of the known planets, as well as the sun, orbited the earth while also moving in their own smaller circular paths. Copernicus countered with a simpler model in which each planet orbits the sun. As we now know, his heliocentric model (which also fits with the observed motion of planets) is the correct model.
Occam’s Razor is also often employed in medicine- when many diagnoses are possible, the simplest one should be tested for first. If a child presents with a sore throat and a cough, a doctor should rule out the common cold before testing for lung cancer. Medical interns are often told “when you hear hoofbeats, think of horses not zebras”.
Additionally, Occam’s razor has been used by both atheists and theologians in attempts to prove and disprove the existence of a higher power. Creationists argue that “God did it” more simply explains the existence of the universe than “it emerged from quantum fluctuations in space time”. On the other hand, evolutionists take issue with the explanation of evidence that the universe appears to have be around for more than 10000 years because “God made it look old” when a simpler explanation could be just that the universe is old.
So as we can see, simplicity is subjective and Occam’s Razor is not a fail-safe tool. Issues can arise when complex problems are oversimplified. Caution must be taken, as with any sharp object, when using Occam’s Razor. Problems arise when Occam’s razor is misapplied- a common mistake is that the principle is misinterpreted to mean that models should be a simple as possible, when in reality, they should be as simple as they can be while still explaining observed evidence. While Occam’s Razor serves as an useful guiding principle, rigidly following Occam’s Razor can easily lead to blind spots and errors in judgement. In the long term, a judgment must be backed by empirical evidence, not just its
When used correctly, Occam’s Razor is a powerful tool which can be deployed against complex problems. Pruning extraneous and superfluous hypotheses enable us to visualise the heart of a problem. In this way, we can eliminate implausible explanations, clearing the path to find the simplest effective solution.
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“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.”
Occam’s Razor is a philosophical principle which states that all else being equal, an explanation for a situation or phenomenon that relies on fewer assumptions is better. It is a mental model used in problem solving which argues we should not to seek out excessively complex solutions to a problem if a simple one exists. It can be applied in a wide range of situations as a mental model for making initial conclusions before sufficient information can be obtained, which can be critical to solving complex problems.
A famous application of Occam’s Razor is the explanation of planetary motion in our solar system. To explain the retrograde motion of the planets, Ptolemy proposed a complicated geocentric model where each of the known planets, as well as the sun, orbited the earth while also moving in their own smaller circular paths. Copernicus countered with a simpler model in which each planet orbits the sun. As we now know, his heliocentric model (which also fits with the observed motion of planets) is the correct model.
Occam’s Razor is also often employed in medicine- when many diagnoses are possible, the simplest one should be tested for first. If a child presents with a sore throat and a cough, a doctor should rule out the common cold before testing for lung cancer. Medical interns are often told “when you hear hoofbeats, think of horses not zebras”.
Additionally, Occam’s razor has been used by both atheists and theologians in attempts to prove and disprove the existence of a higher power. Creationists argue that “God did it” more simply explains the existence of the universe than “it emerged from quantum fluctuations in space time”. On the other hand, evolutionists take issue with the explanation of evidence that the universe appears to have be around for more than 10000 years because “God made it look old” when a simpler explanation could be just that the universe is old.
So as we can see, simplicity is subjective and Occam’s Razor is not a fail-safe tool. Issues can arise when complex problems are oversimplified. Caution must be taken, as with any sharp object, when using Occam’s Razor. Problems arise when Occam’s razor is misapplied- a common mistake is that the principle is misinterpreted to mean that models should be a simple as possible, when in reality, they should be as simple as they can be while still explaining observed evidence. While Occam’s Razor serves as an useful guiding principle, rigidly following Occam’s Razor can easily lead to blind spots and errors in judgement. In the long term, a judgment must be backed by empirical evidence, not just its
When used correctly, Occam’s Razor is a powerful tool which can be deployed against complex problems. Pruning extraneous and superfluous hypotheses enable us to visualise the heart of a problem. In this way, we can eliminate implausible explanations, clearing the path to find the simplest effective solution.