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Uncertainty / Omnipresent and ubiquitous
Omnipresent and ubiquitous
Topic: Uncertainty
by Ally, 2020 Cohort
“The future is uncertain…but this uncertainty is at the very heart of human creativity”- Ilya Prigogine
Uncertainty is broadly defined as epistemic limitation and is present in situations where information is incomplete or unknown. Uncertainty exists across multiple levels and disciplines ranging from policy formation to quantum physics theory, and is an important concept for us to understand because it is inherent to complex problems; in fact, it can be said that the level of complexity of a problem is directly proportional to the amount of uncertainty present.
The nature of uncertainty shifts contingent on context. For example, uncertainty in an artistic sense might look like ambiguity during a creative process, whereas in statistics it is a component of model-building and analysis. Before assuming our own definition of uncertainty, we should take its versatility into consideration.
Uncertainty does not exist within the natural world; it is a socially constructed concept. Much of the public perception surrounding uncertainty carries with it negative undertones, and this perhaps stems from the innate human need for certainty. However, uncertainty is not necessarily negative- indeed, it is a crucial element in culture, relationships, and organisations. Examples where uncertainty plays a positive role are jazz improvisation, gender reveal parties, and surprise gift giving. Uncertainty also drives innovation and progress as it is the cornerstone of curiosity. In short- no uncertainty, no
There exists a range of mechanisms for dealing with uncertainty. Take our current scenario, where a newfound virus emerges, sending the world into a global pandemic. Despite virtually no knowledge about the disease, doctors need to decide who gets admission to the hospital, how to effectively treat or reduce the severity of symptoms, and what to advise staff or relatives looking after them. When placed under pressure in high-uncertainty situations, we can turn to two main coping mechanisms- eliminating uncertainty in the immediate term, and mitigating uncertainty in the medium-to-long term. Eliminating uncertainty involves utilising certain heuristics. One such method is to use recognition-primed decision making, which involves decision making based on assumption. For example, during the initial outbreak of the SARS disease, medical experts treated patients and made decisions under the assumption that SARS was a respiratory disease, because they concluded it was logically feasible that the organism responsible was a virus which transmitted through the respiratory system. Uncertainty in the long term can be mitigated by obtaining knowledge. In the context of COVID-19, doctors are turning to esteemed medical journals as well as academic institutions to decrease some of the uncertainty surrounding the disease. This can also be observed through political leaders placing countries under lockdown and implementing social policy to contain the spread of the virus, as well as attempting to procure a
Uncertainty is inherent to complexity and by grasping the nature of complex problems, we can begin to unravel them. However, it is important to remember that uncertainty is not always a negative concept- often times it is the backbone of joy, creativity, and innovation. You just need to know where to
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“The future is uncertain…but this uncertainty is at the very heart of human creativity”- Ilya Prigogine
Uncertainty is broadly defined as epistemic limitation and is present in situations where information is incomplete or unknown. Uncertainty exists across multiple levels and disciplines ranging from policy formation to quantum physics theory, and is an important concept for us to understand because it is inherent to complex problems; in fact, it can be said that the level of complexity of a problem is directly proportional to the amount of uncertainty present.
The nature of uncertainty shifts contingent on context. For example, uncertainty in an artistic sense might look like ambiguity during a creative process, whereas in statistics it is a component of model-building and analysis. Before assuming our own definition of uncertainty, we should take its versatility into consideration.
Uncertainty does not exist within the natural world; it is a socially constructed concept. Much of the public perception surrounding uncertainty carries with it negative undertones, and this perhaps stems from the innate human need for certainty. However, uncertainty is not necessarily negative- indeed, it is a crucial element in culture, relationships, and organisations. Examples where uncertainty plays a positive role are jazz improvisation, gender reveal parties, and surprise gift giving. Uncertainty also drives innovation and progress as it is the cornerstone of curiosity. In short- no uncertainty, no
There exists a range of mechanisms for dealing with uncertainty. Take our current scenario, where a newfound virus emerges, sending the world into a global pandemic. Despite virtually no knowledge about the disease, doctors need to decide who gets admission to the hospital, how to effectively treat or reduce the severity of symptoms, and what to advise staff or relatives looking after them. When placed under pressure in high-uncertainty situations, we can turn to two main coping mechanisms- eliminating uncertainty in the immediate term, and mitigating uncertainty in the medium-to-long term. Eliminating uncertainty involves utilising certain heuristics. One such method is to use recognition-primed decision making, which involves decision making based on assumption. For example, during the initial outbreak of the SARS disease, medical experts treated patients and made decisions under the assumption that SARS was a respiratory disease, because they concluded it was logically feasible that the organism responsible was a virus which transmitted through the respiratory system. Uncertainty in the long term can be mitigated by obtaining knowledge. In the context of COVID-19, doctors are turning to esteemed medical journals as well as academic institutions to decrease some of the uncertainty surrounding the disease. This can also be observed through political leaders placing countries under lockdown and implementing social policy to contain the spread of the virus, as well as attempting to procure a
Uncertainty is inherent to complexity and by grasping the nature of complex problems, we can begin to unravel them. However, it is important to remember that uncertainty is not always a negative concept- often times it is the backbone of joy, creativity, and innovation. You just need to know where to