Primer Home / Uncertainty / Understanding Ubiquitous Uncertainty

Understanding Ubiquitous Uncertainty

Topic: Uncertainty
by Caitlyn, 2019 Cohort

What is uncertainty (who knows?)

Uncertainty has a broad variety of applications across different disciplines, from Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle in particle physics to conflict situations resulting from socio-political crises such as the ambiguous future of a post-Brexit UK. The difficulty in the broad and diverse understanding of uncertainty as a concept makes it hard to explicitly define. Broadly, uncertainty is concerned with ‘the unknown’ and is characterised by a lack of consistency and low levels of confidence about unpredictable situations. Uncertainty is often anxiety inducing, though it is important to understand that uncertainty is not always negative. An example is in game theory where if ‘Player A’ is uncertain as to the strategy of ‘Player B’, ‘Player B’ has the dominant strategy and is more likely more likely to come out ahead. How does it help to unravel complexity? While we cannot perfectly know how the future will unfold in a complex world, we can make useful approximations using measurements and observations in a methodical and logical way. Managing uncertainty is not about being in control of the system, it’s about equipping yourself to make controlled decisions. In the absence of information, the brains will use cognitive biases to arbitrarily fill in knowledge gaps, leading to poor decision making. This can be averted by seeking knowledge to illuminate an uncertain situation, encouraging more considerate and rational decision making. Leaders need to understand the randomness (or lack of) that causes uncertainty to develop systematic ways to approach complex problems. These methods must include a diversity of perspectives and approaches, as an interdisciplinary approach to uncertainty gives the best opportunity for success. Finally, the most effective leaders are those who place themselves in a positive mindset in challenging situations; not letting themselves be unravelled by a fear of the unknown.

What can you do?

1. Gather knowledge. In a world of ‘fake-news’, science and knowledge prove the solution to understanding uncertainty in complexity and working towards a world of considered and effective decision making. Gathering data and applying statistical techniques can help to narrow the range of possible options applicable in uncertain situations.
2. Take a multi-faceted and interdisciplinary approach. Taking a perspective from multiple disciplines and preparing for multiple outcomes rather than relying on a single possibility builds resilience for if things go wrong. Establishing a ‘common language’ across disciplines is key aspect of communicating around uncertainty.
3. Shift your thinking. There is power in positivity. Not only does it allow you to clear the fear that comes from uncertainty, but it equips you to be able to communicate to an increasingly anxious and divided public in a way that is true to the reality of a situation and appeals to their fears in a genuine and truthful way.

Seek knowledge. Listen to different perspectives. Think positive. Understand uncertainty in a complex world

Explore this topic further#

• Uncertainty{.link-ext target=”_blank” } (Wikipedia)
• The Many Faces and Masks of Uncertainty{.link-ext target=”_blank”} by Michael Smithson

Return to Uncertainty in the Primer

Disclaimer#

This content has been contributed by a student as part of a learning activity.
If there are inaccuracies, or opportunities for significant improvement on this topic, feedback is welcome on how to improve the resource.
You can improve articles on this topic as a student in "Unravelling Complexity", or by including the amendments in an email to: Chris.Browne@anu.edu.au

What is uncertainty (who knows?)

Uncertainty has a broad variety of applications across different disciplines, from Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle in particle physics to conflict situations resulting from socio-political crises such as the ambiguous future of a post-Brexit UK. The difficulty in the broad and diverse understanding of uncertainty as a concept makes it hard to explicitly define. Broadly, uncertainty is concerned with ‘the unknown’ and is characterised by a lack of consistency and low levels of confidence about unpredictable situations. Uncertainty is often anxiety inducing, though it is important to understand that uncertainty is not always negative. An example is in game theory where if ‘Player A’ is uncertain as to the strategy of ‘Player B’, ‘Player B’ has the dominant strategy and is more likely more likely to come out ahead. How does it help to unravel complexity? While we cannot perfectly know how the future will unfold in a complex world, we can make useful approximations using measurements and observations in a methodical and logical way. Managing uncertainty is not about being in control of the system, it’s about equipping yourself to make controlled decisions. In the absence of information, the brains will use cognitive biases to arbitrarily fill in knowledge gaps, leading to poor decision making. This can be averted by seeking knowledge to illuminate an uncertain situation, encouraging more considerate and rational decision making. Leaders need to understand the randomness (or lack of) that causes uncertainty to develop systematic ways to approach complex problems. These methods must include a diversity of perspectives and approaches, as an interdisciplinary approach to uncertainty gives the best opportunity for success. Finally, the most effective leaders are those who place themselves in a positive mindset in challenging situations; not letting themselves be unravelled by a fear of the unknown.

What can you do?

1. Gather knowledge. In a world of ‘fake-news’, science and knowledge prove the solution to understanding uncertainty in complexity and working towards a world of considered and effective decision making. Gathering data and applying statistical techniques can help to narrow the range of possible options applicable in uncertain situations.
2. Take a multi-faceted and interdisciplinary approach. Taking a perspective from multiple disciplines and preparing for multiple outcomes rather than relying on a single possibility builds resilience for if things go wrong. Establishing a ‘common language’ across disciplines is key aspect of communicating around uncertainty.
3. Shift your thinking. There is power in positivity. Not only does it allow you to clear the fear that comes from uncertainty, but it equips you to be able to communicate to an increasingly anxious and divided public in a way that is true to the reality of a situation and appeals to their fears in a genuine and truthful way.

Seek knowledge. Listen to different perspectives. Think positive. Understand uncertainty in a complex world