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Summary on wicked problems

Topic: Wicked problems
by Howard, 2018 Cohort

Note: This entry was created in 2018, when the task was to “summarise a key reading”, and so may not represent a good example to model current primer entries on.

Summary#

A Wicked Problem is a problem that is highly resistant to solution. It is a problem defined by uncertainty, diverse stakeholders, and lack of effective solutions. They are often part of a complex system of interrelated problems, and fixes that attempt to mitigate symptoms can exacerbate the root cause or symptoms of related problems. In all wicked problems individual actors have a strong incentive to defect from a solution.

Elements#

There have been several formulations of Wicked problems since the introduction of the term by Rittel and Melvin M. Webber in 1973,1 refined to six elements by Conklin.2

Subsequently, Horn and Webster expanded upon the term, reconstruing the concept as one of messes (that is a system of interrelated problems),3 while the concept of Super wicked problems has also emerged (usually used to describe climate change)4. Consolidating and synthesising these characteristics produces the following elements.

1. Incomplete Understanding of the Problem: Where there is not or cannot be a complete understanding of the problem in the cause of the problem, and its relationship to other problems or issues.
2. Uncertain Consequences: Where the consequences of the problem, and of the potential solutions cannot be reliably defined or quantified.
3. Absence of an Optimal Solution: Where no single solution is completely effective, and no solution is pareto superior (i.e., addressing every aspect better than, and leaving all stakeholders better off than every alternative). Where no solution provides a stopping point where the problem is solved, and the requirements of the solution cannot be predicted.
4. Absence of Analogous Situations: The situation is unique or novel, and has no comparable problems to adapt solutions from.
5. Existence with a complex system: The Problem and any proposed solutions exist within a interdependent system of other problems and variables, and solutions can have perverse unintended consequences.
6. No Authoritative Actor: No singular actor within the system has the capability to unilaterally implement a solution.
7. Diverse Stakeholders: Many, and diverse sets of stakeholders, with divergent interests and worldviews.
8. Solutions have Immediate, localised costs, delayed, dispersed benefits.
9. Strong Incentive to Defect from Solutions: Where a large number of individual actors and stakeholders have an incentive to defect from solutions for personal short term gain.
10. One Shot: No potential solution is costless, or immediate, and each attempted solutions fundamentally changes the problem- no opportunity to learn by trial and

Examples#

Global Antibiotic Resistance

Excessive use of agricultural antibiotics and incomplete courses of treatment are leading to a global uptake in antibiotic resistance, but the problem defies definition, the risks are difficult to quantify, no easy solutions exist, and action would require global cooperation where every state actor has an incentive to defect (As agricultural antibiotic use reduces costs).

Superintelligent Artificial Intelligence

The problem of superintelligent defies definition, and the consequences are impossible to imagine, the risks uncertain and unquantifiable. There is deep seated value and worldview differences between stakeholders on the magnitude of the risk and on potential solutions. Simultaneously, there is massive economic incentive for actors to aggressively develop machine learning and artificial intelligence, which places costs on more cautious development, which must be globally binding to be effective.

Further reading#

1. Horst Rittel & Melvin Webber Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning (1973) 4 Policy Sciences 155.
2. Jeffrey Conklin Dialogue mapping : building shared understanding of wicked problems. (Chichester, England: Wiley Publishing. 2006)
3. Robert Horn & Robert Weber New Tools For Resolving Wicked Problems: Mess Mapping and Resolution Mapping Processes (2007) Strategy Kinetic LLC.
4. Richard James Lazarus Super Wicked Problems and Climate Change: Restraining the Present to Liberate the Future (2009) 94 (5) Cornell Law Review.
5. When the Drugs dont work The Economist (London, 21st of May 2016)

Explore this topic further#

• Wicked Problems{.link-ext target=”_blank”} (Wikipedia)
• Brown, Valerie A., John A. Harris, Jacqueline Y Russell 2010, Tackling wicked problems through the transdisciplinary imagination, Earthscan (Chapters 1 and 2) PDF{.link-new-win target=”_blank”}
• Alford, J., & Head, B. W. (2017). Wicked and less wicked problems: a typology and a contingency framework.{.link-new-win target=”_blank”}

Return to Wicked problems in the Primer

Disclaimer#

This content has been contributed by a student as part of a learning activity.
If there are inaccuracies, or opportunities for significant improvement on this topic, feedback is welcome on how to improve the resource.
You can improve articles on this topic as a student in "Unravelling Complexity", or by including the amendments in an email to: Chris.Browne@anu.edu.au

Note: This entry was created in 2018, when the task was to “summarise a key reading”, and so may not represent a good example to model current primer entries on.

Summary#

A Wicked Problem is a problem that is highly resistant to solution. It is a problem defined by uncertainty, diverse stakeholders, and lack of effective solutions. They are often part of a complex system of interrelated problems, and fixes that attempt to mitigate symptoms can exacerbate the root cause or symptoms of related problems. In all wicked problems individual actors have a strong incentive to defect from a solution.

Elements#

There have been several formulations of Wicked problems since the introduction of the term by Rittel and Melvin M. Webber in 1973,1 refined to six elements by Conklin.2

Subsequently, Horn and Webster expanded upon the term, reconstruing the concept as one of messes (that is a system of interrelated problems),3 while the concept of Super wicked problems has also emerged (usually used to describe climate change)4. Consolidating and synthesising these characteristics produces the following elements.

1. Incomplete Understanding of the Problem: Where there is not or cannot be a complete understanding of the problem in the cause of the problem, and its relationship to other problems or issues.
2. Uncertain Consequences: Where the consequences of the problem, and of the potential solutions cannot be reliably defined or quantified.
3. Absence of an Optimal Solution: Where no single solution is completely effective, and no solution is pareto superior (i.e., addressing every aspect better than, and leaving all stakeholders better off than every alternative). Where no solution provides a stopping point where the problem is solved, and the requirements of the solution cannot be predicted.
4. Absence of Analogous Situations: The situation is unique or novel, and has no comparable problems to adapt solutions from.
5. Existence with a complex system: The Problem and any proposed solutions exist within a interdependent system of other problems and variables, and solutions can have perverse unintended consequences.
6. No Authoritative Actor: No singular actor within the system has the capability to unilaterally implement a solution.
7. Diverse Stakeholders: Many, and diverse sets of stakeholders, with divergent interests and worldviews.
8. Solutions have Immediate, localised costs, delayed, dispersed benefits.
9. Strong Incentive to Defect from Solutions: Where a large number of individual actors and stakeholders have an incentive to defect from solutions for personal short term gain.
10. One Shot: No potential solution is costless, or immediate, and each attempted solutions fundamentally changes the problem- no opportunity to learn by trial and

Examples#

Global Antibiotic Resistance

Excessive use of agricultural antibiotics and incomplete courses of treatment are leading to a global uptake in antibiotic resistance, but the problem defies definition, the risks are difficult to quantify, no easy solutions exist, and action would require global cooperation where every state actor has an incentive to defect (As agricultural antibiotic use reduces costs).

Superintelligent Artificial Intelligence

The problem of superintelligent defies definition, and the consequences are impossible to imagine, the risks uncertain and unquantifiable. There is deep seated value and worldview differences between stakeholders on the magnitude of the risk and on potential solutions. Simultaneously, there is massive economic incentive for actors to aggressively develop machine learning and artificial intelligence, which places costs on more cautious development, which must be globally binding to be effective.

Further reading#

1. Horst Rittel & Melvin Webber Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning (1973) 4 Policy Sciences 155.
2. Jeffrey Conklin Dialogue mapping : building shared understanding of wicked problems. (Chichester, England: Wiley Publishing. 2006)
3. Robert Horn & Robert Weber New Tools For Resolving Wicked Problems: Mess Mapping and Resolution Mapping Processes (2007) Strategy Kinetic LLC.
4. Richard James Lazarus Super Wicked Problems and Climate Change: Restraining the Present to Liberate the Future (2009) 94 (5) Cornell Law Review.
5. When the Drugs dont work The Economist (London, 21st of May 2016)